Crypto's Correlation Break: BTC vs the Nasdaq in 2026

For most of the last cycle, Bitcoin behaved like high-beta Nasdaq exposure — up on risk-on days, down when rates spiked. That made it easy to model but hard to justify as a diversifier.

The rolling 90-day correlation has compressed sharply this year as spot-ETF flows introduced a buyer base with a different time horizon than leveraged crypto-natives.

Outlook: a durable correlation break would strengthen the portfolio case for a small structural allocation, but liquidity remains thin enough that macro shocks can still re-couple the assets overnight.