Gold's Real-Yield Anchor: Why $2,400 Isn't the Ceiling

The popular narrative ties every gold move to geopolitics, but the cleaner signal is the 10-year real yield. When inflation-protected yields fall, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset drops — and gold bids.

Central-bank buying has put a structural floor under the market that did not exist a decade ago. Reserve diversification away from the dollar is a multi-year flow, not a single-quarter trade.

Outlook: a break and hold above $2,400 opens $2,520 as the next measured target, provided real yields stay capped. A sharp rebound in yields is the main risk to the thesis.